Population Density and Crime

Sep 23, 2024

2 min read

It's 2014 and I was on the board of a community league. A typical meeting involved hall rentals, updates to programs (preschool, baseball, yoga), and a discussion on agenda items such as retrofitting the outdoor hockey rink with LED lights.

The meetings were attended by the usual residents. Some meetings, we barely made quorum. Most folks paid no mind to the league.

And then our community was notified about a group home being established. Suddenly many residents started paying attention.

A special meeting was called in response to the interest and the emails that flooded the community league inbox. Many messages critical. Some even completely hostile.

Many of the arguments from those in opposition to the group home could be summarized in one sentence: "We don't want more people because it will bring more crime."

It's a common perception that more density equals more crime. However, in the data below, it shows there isn't a relationship between density and crime.

Using statistics from the Edmonton Police Service, crime and population were collected from 260 Edmonton communities. Communities of all sorts; Terwillegar, Twin Brooks, Fraser, Boyle Street, Westmount.

Despite South Terwillegar ranking 7th in population density, it ranked 245th in crime.

Despite Rutherford ranking 10th in density, it ranked 237th in crime.

In fact, the 25 least densely populated communities typically suffered a worse crime incident rate than those in the top 25.

Yes, there are some examples that feed the stereotype (Boyle Street ranks 4th in density and 19th in crime). However, to say that density is causing crime in Boyle Street is an over-simplification.

Boyle Street is an interesting study. Even this post risks oversimplifying the nature of Boyle Street. It isn't lost on anyone in tune with Edmonton that Boyle Street is an area that struggles with crime. Though experts on the subject of crime point to underlying causes such as mental health, addictions, broken homes, and abuse.

Boyle Street broken up into thirds (yellow borders). The markers indicate how many incidents of crime occurred in these areas in the past 12 months. The areas in red represent vacant land and parking lots.

Boyle Street represents a community of contrast. In the area nearest downtown, Boyle Street is littered with parking lots and derelict properties. In the middle, many smaller homes exist. Further east, several high density residential towers have been built.

Where is the highest concentration of crime in Boyle Street? It's in the area with the highest concentration of parking lots and vacant land.

What is true about crime is that it's a very complex subject to comprehend. What is untrue is a narrative that more population density leads to more crime.